Who says to beware the Ides of March? The upside of a prolonged Oscar race has meant some unexpected late drama. For months, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” sailed through awards season, picking up prize after prize. But the wins for “Sinners” and Michael B.
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Andy Jurgensen, from left, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Paul Thomas Anderson pose with the awards for best director, cinematography, and adapted screenplay for ‘One Battle After Another’ at the 79th British Academy Film Awards, BAFTA’s, in London, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. Jessie Buckley arrives at the 98th Academy Awards Oscar nominees luncheon on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, Calif. Michael B. Jordan, center, winner of the award for outstanding performance by a male actor, and the cast of “Sinners” pose with award for outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. This image released by Warner Bros. Pictures shows Teyana Taylor, left, and Sean Penn in a scene from “One Battle After Another.” Amy Madigan poses in the press room with the award for outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role for “Weapons” during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. Michael B. Jordan accepts the award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role for “Sinners” during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. Michael B. Jordan accepts the award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role for “Sinners” during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. Andy Jurgensen, from left, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Paul Thomas Anderson pose with the awards for best director, cinematography, and adapted screenplay for ‘One Battle After Another’ at the 79th British Academy Film Awards, BAFTA’s, in London, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. Andy Jurgensen, from left, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor, and Paul Thomas Anderson pose with the awards for best director, cinematography, and adapted screenplay for ‘One Battle After Another’ at the 79th British Academy Film Awards, BAFTA’s, in London, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. Jessie Buckley arrives at the 98th Academy Awards Oscar nominees luncheon on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, Calif. Jessie Buckley arrives at the 98th Academy Awards Oscar nominees luncheon on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026, at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, Calif. Michael B. Jordan, center, winner of the award for outstanding performance by a male actor, and the cast of “Sinners” pose with award for outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. Michael B. Jordan, center, winner of the award for outstanding performance by a male actor, and the cast of “Sinners” pose with award for outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. This image released by Warner Bros. Pictures shows Teyana Taylor, left, and Sean Penn in a scene from “One Battle After Another.” This image released by Warner Bros. Pictures shows Teyana Taylor, left, and Sean Penn in a scene from “One Battle After Another.” Amy Madigan poses in the press room with the award for outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role for “Weapons” during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. Amy Madigan poses in the press room with the award for outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role for “Weapons” during the 32nd Annual Actor Awards on Sunday, March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. But the upside of a prolonged Oscar race has meant some unexpected late drama. Think about the same movies long enough, and minds can change. For months, Paul Thomas Anderson’sAn Academy Awards that had looked like a runaway might be a close call, after all. With Oscar voting ending Thursday, let’s survey the top categories. But its nearly unblemished record was shaken up at Sunday’s Actor Awards , where “Sinners” took the top prize. You’d have to have quite a few rounds at the “Sinners” juke joint to convince yourself that anything else has much of a chance.The tea leaves are strongest for Anderson’s “One Battle After Another.” The Producers Guild, which uses a preferential ballot like the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences does, is among the most predictive of bellwethers. Their winners have matched the last five years and in eight of the last 10 years. The actors guild best ensemble prize, on the other hand, has a shaky track record. In the last 31 years, the SAG winner has matched the Oscar champ only 15 times. The win for “Sinners,” though, came right in the midst of Oscar voting. It was a good time to show out. So this race feels close to a coin flip, with a Warner Bros. movie on both sides. The awards season resume makes “One Battle After Another” the front-runner. But “Sinners,” even withThis has been one of the most competitive and hard-to-call races of the season. Look at Leonardo DiCaprio. He gives one of the best performances of his career, in the best picture favorite, and he’s still a long shot. Instead,was widely perceived as in the lead after early wins at the Globes and the Critics Choice Awards for his frenetic performance in “Marty Supreme.” But the BAFTAs muddied the waters . And “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan, much to his surprise, won at the Actor Awards.Chalamet’s maybe meta campaign, full of swagger and braggadocio, rubbed some voters the wrong way. At the same time, many in the academy felt the 30-year-old should have won last year, for his Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown” — a year when he won with the actors guild but lost toat the Oscars. Chalamet will hope the reverse happens this year. But the academy is notoriously resistant to rewarding young stars. Jordan, 39, isn’t much older. But it now suddenly feels like his moment.has been the favorite. She’s won at the Globes, the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards. Her closest competition is probably Rose Byrne, who won at the Globes in the comedy/musical category for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.”This one’s easy. Fortunes have fluctuated in most of the top categories, but Buckley has been entrenched as the front-runner for months.Sean Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, has done nearly no campaigning, yet he finds himself the favorite after winning at the Actor Awards and the BAFTAs. But several other nominees remain in the mix. won at the Globes and is the kind of widely-liked veteran actor the academy likes to reward. But so is Delroy Lindo , who was a surprise Oscar nominee. In the eyes of many, Lindo has quickly joined the contenders.Penn’s recent wins put him clearly in the lead, and he might stay there. But this remains a category rife with possibilities. The academy’s strong international leanings should help Skarsgård. And it wasn’t an accident that when “Sinners” won best ensemble at the Actor Awards, Lindo gave the acceptance speech.This category has been all over the map. Teyana Taylor won at the Globes. Wunmi Mosaku won at the BAFTAs. And Amy Madigan won at both the Actor Awards and the Critics Choice Awards.Any of those three could win. Two of them — Taylor and Mosaku — have the benefit of co-starring in films the academy obviously loves. “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” have 29 nominations between them, while “Weapons” has only the one. Yet the 75-year-old Madigan, another celebrated character actor who’s been great for decades, has the momentum thanks to her charming Actors Award speech.Coyle has been a film critic and covered the movie industry for The Associated Press since 2013. He is based in New York City.
Timothee Chalamet Delroy Lindo Michael B. Jordan Paul Thomas Anderson Sean Penn Wunmi Mosaku Jessie Buckley Amy Madigan Movies Golden Globe Awards Academy Awards General News Academy Awards Oscars The Edge Robert Aramayo Arts And Entertainment Adrien Brody Bob Dylan U.S. News Rose Byrne Leonardo Dicaprio U.S. News
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