The presidential election in Turkey is being watched carefully in Western capitals, NATO headquarters and the Kremlin, with Turkey’s longtime mediating role in the complex and often vexing relations among the parties riding on the outcome.
A reelection campaign poster depicting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Kayseri, Turkey, on April 21, 2023. Erdogan has tapped the power of his office to appeal to voters and mitigate the effects of inflation.
Russia, too, has much riding on the election’s outcome. Under Erdogan, Turkey has become Russia’s indispensable trading partner and at times a diplomatic intermediary, a relationship that has assumed an even greater importance for the Kremlin since the invasion of Ukraine. Kaja Kallas, Estonia’s prime minister, said in an interview that NATO and the EU viewed the election differently. It is a defense alliance, she said, and “Turkey is one of the allies that has great military capacities” to help NATO in a key part of the world. “So I don’t think anything changes in terms of NATO in this regard, whoever wins the elections.”
Not only has Erdogan refused to join Western sanctions against Russia and provided a market for its oil and gas, but Turkey has also become a source for Moscow of much-needed imports and a crucial link to the global economy amid tightening Western sanctions. The Kremlin also sees in Erdogan’s often confrontational nationalist rhetoric the potential to disrupt the NATO alliance.
Erdogan has stopped short of offering Putin direct support in the war in Ukraine, and his government has angered Russia by allowing the sale of Turkish armed drones to Ukraine.
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