Geologists expected the Westdahl Peak volcano to erupt again by 2010, yet it sits still intact and restless – pointing to flaws in our predictive models.
last blew in a series of eruptions between 1991 and 1992. The volcano has continued to swell since, threatening more action to come – with an active magma chamber bubbling away around 7.2 kilometers beneath its surface.
"Our numerical experiments indicate that the presence of an ice cap increases the average repose interval for a magma system," Lucas and colleaguesUsing computer simulations University of Illinois researchers found a linear relationship between ice-cap thickness and the volume changes needed within the volcano to overcome the strength of the encasing rock and explode.
However, while the ice cap may account for some of Westdahl's unexpected stability, there's still more to the story, the researchers caution. Their study assumed constant flux, which does not capture the dynamics of other systems such as those that have been long dormant.
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