Real-time indicators of business activity show the first stirrings of an economic rebound.
Americans on Saturday headed back to shops and restaurants trying to recapture routines thepandemic had forced them to abandon two months ago, a sign that the U.S. economy may have hit bottom and is beginning the long climb back.
Restaurants in Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma and Tennessee also reported the return of a significant number of diners. Total economic activity has increased “only slightly faster” in states that have officially reopened, Goldman said, though the improvement is more noticeable for specific businesses such as retail outlets and restaurants.
“We’re realizing that this is going to be a long-term rebuilding process,” he said. “You’re going to have those locals that come out right away or those people from the city who come out right away to support the businesses, but long term is that traffic going to keep coming out?” A working paper and database developed by researchers at institutions including Harvard Medical School and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology examined a host of weather conditions, such as temperature, relative humidity and precipitation, at 3,739 locations worldwide to determine the “relative covid-19 risk due to weather.”Average temperatures above 77 degrees are associated with a reduction in the virus’s transmission, they concluded.
In recent days, at least two states have changed the way they report information on covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, while federal officials have feuded over their approach to collecting fatality statistics.In Colorado, public health officials began counting deaths from the coronavirus to include only patients whose death certificates specifically list the cause as covid-19.
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