The New York Fed found that consumers' expectations about missed debt payments edged higher in September for the fourth consecutive month, as some may face increased budget pressures.
American consumers' expectations about the risk of debt delinquency rose to the highest level in more than four years last month, while concerns about elevated inflation over the longer-term also increased, according to a report released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months was flat in September when compared with August, though the probability of voluntarily leaving a job ticked up from 19.1% in August to 20.4% in September, the highest level since July. Expectations of a higher unemployment rate one year from now approached the lowest level in 2024, with respondents putting the probability at 36.2%, slightly higher than the 36.1% in February.
The Labor Department's consumer price index , a popular inflation gauge, slowed to 2.4% in September – closer to the Fed's 2% target, though it remained higher than LSEG economists expected. Inflation has gradually cooled over the last few years after this inflationary cycle peaked at a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that recent data doesn't show the U.S.
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