The original cold war ended with an American victory. In a new Sino-American cold war, both countries could lose
experts how a great-power competition with China might end well, and their best-case scenarios are strikingly similar. They describe a near future in which China overreaches and stumbles. They imagine a China chastened by slowing growth at home and a backlash to its assertive ways overseas. That China, they hope, might look again at the global order and seek a leading role in it, rather than its remaking.
Evan Medeiros, formerly Barack Obama’s top Asia adviser, worries that China is focused on Mr Trump’s disruptive diplomacy and narrow interest in trade. Mr Medeiros, now at Georgetown University, hears a lack of understanding about how America’s mood has changed. The Chinese “are focused on the cyclical, I don’t think they have internalised the structural,” he says.As for America, it needs to remember that engagement with China was not an act of charity.
America must avoid traps. If Chinese strategists believe what they say—that America is tired and ready to retreat—the next step is predictable. China will offer America a superficially easy life in which China is granted a sphere of influence in the western Pacific Ocean, and America settles into inward-looking decline.
Not long ago America and China defused crises by promising to expand commerce. It is too late for that. David Dollar of the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, represented the Treasury in Beijing. He recalls President Xi Jinping telling visiting Americans that “the economic relationship is the foundation of our relationship.” Mr Dollar demurs. Several Western allies, such as Germany, are more deeply bound to China by direct exchanges than America is.
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