New level 3 regulations mark an important strategic shift in the government’s approach
Workers arrive for a shift at the BMW SA Rosslyn plant in Midrand. Picture: WALDO SWIEGERS/BLOOMBERG
In a recent working paper we estimated how many people would return to work, either at the workplace or at home, at the different levels of the lockdown, according to the five-level plan unveiled on April 26. Using a static analysis derived from industry subsectors matched to the five-level plan, we estimated that under level 5 of the original lockdown framework 40% of total employment was permitted, or 6.6-million workers.
We estimate that the shift from level 4 to the new level 3 means the total number of people able to work increases from 9.2-million to 15.8-million. That means 95% of the employed workforce is permitted to return to work. This marks an important strategic shift in the government’s approach. The initial approach was to restrict all activity and then allow a set of special emergency sectors to operate. The new approach is the opposite: allow everything, except for a small set of restrictions. The new regulations are likely to be easier to regulate, are more transparent, and will result in better coherence between the health and economic strategies government is following.
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