Alexander Lukashenko is the clearest beneficiary of Wagner’s mutiny

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Alexander Lukashenko is the clearest beneficiary of Wagner’s mutiny
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But his role in halting the march on Moscow is probably exaggerated

over two decades since Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s scheming dictator, has enjoyed such a good press in Russia. Throughout the weekend, Kremlin propagandists lauded his role in halting the mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin at the gates of Moscow. The moustachioed leader deserved a “Hero of Russia’” honour, enthused Vladimir Solovyov, a usually sour-mouthed Kremlin cheerleader. “It’s impossible to overestimate his wisdom and negotiating talent; he showed captainship of the highest order.

In announcing the deal, Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, said that Mr Prigozhin and Mr Lukashenko had been joined by a 20-year bond. In fact, their main link appears to be a meal the Belarusian leader took in one of Mr Prigozhin’s restaurants in St Petersburg in 2002. “He liked the lunch very much and shook Mr Prigozhin’s hand,” said Alexander Zimovsky, a spin-doctor present at the meal, “but it would be hard to say they have kept serious contact since.

Much is still unknown about the details of the agreement. In broad terms, Mr Prigozhin was promised safe passage to Belarus and an amnesty in exchange for turning around his armoured column. But beyond that, confusion reigns; some reports say that the charges against Mr Prigozhin still stand.

Belarusian law would also appear to exclude the kind of privileges that Wagner’s mercenaries have enjoyed inside Russia. The right to carry weapons is given only to those in recognised state agencies, the army, police andas the local security service is still known. One scenario would see Mr Prigozhin and his unarmed men settle in Minsk for a short while before departing to concentrate on business in Africa.

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