Alex Turnbull, John Hempton and the inexact science of short selling

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Alex Turnbull, John Hempton and the inexact science of short selling
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When hedge fund manager John Hempton became suspicious of Wirecard, little did he imagine a part in uncovering the ‘biggest fraud in German history’.

Around 2014, Alex Turnbull was asked by a professional Sydney investor, John Hempton, if he would inspect a Jakarta office.

As a short seller, or someone who bets that share prices will fall, he wanted evidence that revenue Wirecard had reported from the Indonesian capital wasn’t legitimate and asked his friend Turnbull, the son of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, to travel from his Singapore home to inspect Wirecard’s office.

Wirecard was indeed a house of cards but, as short sellers have always understood, knowing something is suspicious is no guarantee of returns. Although New York-based Hindenburg Research, another short seller, is assumed to have made money out of its recent report on India’s Adani Group, such successes are few and far between. As Hempton can attest, more often the short seller doesn’t make anything at all.

The best shorts are often popular stocks – Australian short-seller targets have included JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman, WiseTech Global and Fortescue Metals Group. They successfully countered attacks.Executives have a disproportionate incentive to fight back. Investors can only lose money. Managers are defending their livelihoods, and possibly freedom.

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