South Africa is being hit with a barrage of bad news.
The rand has been rattled by global risk aversion, coupled with warnings from the minister of electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa that the country is facing a massive energy shortfall in the approaching winter months in South Africa.
On the global front, warnings over poor worldwide production have put a damper on sentiment. Locally, the energy crisis – with no solution in sight – is keeping investors at bay. Further warnings on global growth are also emanating from “geopolitical fragmentation”, driven by tensions between the US and China. These risk damaging the global economy, with foreign direct investment and other capital increasingly being channelled toward aligned blocs of countries.
Meanwhile, the new electricity Minister, Kgosientsho, has taken a different narrative, putting the blame on technical and operational issues, particularly in Eskom’s coal fleet. On average, Eskom can guarantee us about 27,000MW, and peak demand in summer is about 32,000MW. The gap between the guaranteed and expected winter demand is around 10,000MW, which is roughly equivalent to 10 stages of load shedding, given Eskom’s calculations of 1,000MW per stage.
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