The peak in the Western Cape seems to be later than was originally projected and is likely to take place from end of July to beginning of August, Alan Winde writes
The peak in the Western Cape seems to be later than was originally projected and is likely to take place from end of July to beginning of AugustA hospital worker puts on gloves as part of her Personal Protective Equipment in the COVID-19 ward at the Somerset Hospital in Cape Town, on July 2, 2020. Picture: RODGER BOSCH / AFP
In April, I revealed our very first scenario planning projections to the public. These projections could not be based on real data in the province, as there simply were not enough cases in the Western Cape and SA at the time. It therefore looked at international trends, our population size, and factored in reasonable epidemiological assumptions.
• A peak towards the end of June, beginning of July 2020, that was notably steeper than our original provisioning scenario. This peak, however, was not as steep as the Assa model.As a result, there was a requirement of approximately 7,800 beds at the peak of the pandemic. We had previously worked on a 6200-bed requirement.At the time, our original provisioning scenario was still tracking the number of deaths and hospitalisations reasonably accurately.
Models are projections, using available data and based on assumptions. They help us explore what might transpire, but the outputs should be treated with caution and full understanding of the inherent assumptions, limitations and uncertainty. The NCEM calibration has been completed, and the latest provisioning scenario has the following conclusions:The peak in the Western Cape seems to be later than was originally projected and is likely to take place from end of July to beginning of August.This peak is also flatter than was originally projected. This means that we will not have as many hospitalisations and deaths at the peak as we originally thought.
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