The Crimson Tide will win the Iron Bowl behind a big game from Ty Simpson, as our Alabama vs. Auburn picks, odds & expert predictions for Saturday, November 29 explain.
Alabama set to take the Iron Bowl, with Ty Simpson primed for a standout performance — just as our college football betting picks lay out. Alabama has won five straight Iron Bowls against Auburn, and a sixth would punch the Crimson Tide’s ticket to the SEC title game.
Despite a few missteps, Alabama has looked like one of the better teams in the country this season. Ty Simpson looks like one of the best QBs in the country, and the defense has been solid.. Head coach Hugh Freeze was let go, and the team is 5-6. But none of that would matter if the Tigers were able to pull off the upset against their biggest rival. And they might have something in QB Ashton Daniels, who threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns while running for another 89 yards and two scores in a recent loss to Vanderbilt. While Auburn may be able to keep this game close for a while, unfortunately, its biggest weakness is Bama’s greatest strength. I’m talking about the Tigers' inability to shut down the pass. Auburn enters this game ranked 90th in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 56th in opponent EPA per dropback. And now all the Tigers have to do is contend with arguably the best passing attack in the country. Simpson and his receiving corps, led by Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, rank eighth in offensive success rate on dropbacks and ninth in EPA per dropback. The Alabama aerial attack will be relentless, and Simpson has too many weapons at his disposal for a struggling Auburn pass defense to contend with. It will not only be the difference in the Tide winning the Iron Bowl, but covering the spread as well. Alabama wins and covers this game on the strength of Ty Simpson’s arm. He’s gone Over this passing yards line in five of his last eight games vs. Power 4 opponents, and the last time Auburn faced a passing attack like this, it got torched for 377 yards by Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt. Simpson has a terrific trio of receivers in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton, but he’s started working tight end Josh Cuevas into the mix more recently as well. Cuevas has 13 catches for 158 yards and has scored two touchdowns over the last three games. I like the value for him to find the end zone once again in the Iron Bowl.Cam Coleman has always been a stud, but he went off with his first game with Ashton Daniels as his QB, going for 143 yards and a TD on 10 catches against Vandy.Auburn could keep this one close for a while, but Alabama's passing attack will prove too much in the long run, allowing the Crimson Tide to win the Iron Bowl for the sixth consecutive season.If Alabama does win its sixth straight Iron Bowl, I’m betting it happens by at least a touchdown. The aerial attack will create enough explosive plays to make that happen. Not to mention, Auburn has just one conference win this season and is 2-4-1 ATS in SEC play.I have a slight lean to the Under here. The intense nature of a rivalry game like this tends to favor the Under, and Alabama has played to the Under in seven of its last eight games overall.Auburn has only covered in four of its last 12 games for -4.80 Units and a -36% ROI. Find more : Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links. When his dreams of becoming the next Steve Nash died, all Andrew"Taco" Caley wanted to do was write about sports, something he's been doing at Covers for more than a decade. A Journalism School grad from Holland College in Charlottetown, PEI, Andrew previously worked at The Chronicle Herald and Star Metro, but knew in his heart that his future lay in sports. He began at Covers as a news editor and has now done everything under the sun when it comes to content. His work has been seen on TSN, Sportsnet, VSiN, and CBS. These days Andrew's betting expertise is focused on his favorite teams; the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He's also an avid college football fan and bettor. He can't be friends with you if you don't appreciate a Service Academy Under. The sportsbook where he does the bulk of his betting is bet365 thanks to its numerous prop betting options and competitive odds. His best advice? Find the balance between the numbers and what you see on the playing field. Then find the best price using multiple books. And don’t ask him where the nickname Taco comes from. It's not an interesting story. 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