AL-BASHIR, MEET JUSTICE: Demands for toppled Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir to face prosecution By Peter Fabricius Pfabric
The toppling of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir by his own security forces under pressure of large and growing popular protests has prompted demands for him to be transferred to The Hague for prosecution by the International Criminal Court .
Some analysts fear that surrendering al-Bashir, who had been in power for 30 years, to the ICC could be the spark that ignites a counter-coup by his remaining loyalists in the security services. The court later ruled that al-Bashir should be arrested by the South African government, under its obligations as an ICC member state, but the government let him escape. It was later reprimanded by the ICC for doing so.
But Allan Ngari, senior researcher at the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies, does not believe this is the right time to demand that the transitional Sudanese authorities surrender al-Bashir to The Hague.The country is too politically fraught. In terms of sequencing, it might be better to ensure a peaceful transition first,” he said, suggesting that putting pressure on Khartoum now could be destabilising.
Initial indications were that “the coup is supported by various factions of the state security apparatus — namely the Sudan Armed Forces, National Intelligence and Security Service and the Rapid Security Forces — which reduces previous concerns of possible factionalism between security agencies aligned with the al-Bashir administration and those ranged against it.”
Signal Risk has also warned that it is by no means clear that “the installation of a transitional military junta will satisfy the demands of protesters”. It notes that while the military took sides with the protesters against the Bashir regime, it might react very differently if the protesters continue to protest against the new junta.
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