Even after his Masters win, our stubborn statistical model still preaches caution at the PGA Championship
. At the time, EAGLE considered him the ninth-best player in the world, with around a 2% chance of victory; punters put him third or fourth, with roughly a 5% chance.
Yet EAGLE, undeterred by the toll Mr Woods may have taken on its reputation last month, is a stubborn bird. Mr Woods has not played in any events since his Masters victory, giving the model a paltry four new rounds’ worth of data with which to update its assessment of him. Moreover, his triumph at Augusta National was slightly. He beat the field’s average score by a modest ten strokes, a margin that historically has been sufficient to win a major just 8% of the time.
By definition, win probabilities are zero-sum. As a result, if Mr Woods and Mr Koepka stand less of a chance than is popularly thought, someone else must be under-valued. As it has been for every major since the start of 2018, EAGLE’s top pick to win is Mr Johnson. He has just reclaimed the top spot in the official world rankings from Justin Rose, and for good reason. After adjusting for playing conditions, Mr Johnson’s average scores during the past nine months are 0.
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