China A-shares at greatest risk if the phase one trade deal gets shelved.
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“I’m not worried about phase one at all. I think the markets have already overlooked China,” says Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research, an investment research firm in the New Jersey suburbsspun off from supply sider Jude Wanniski’s Polyconomics some ten years ago. “The passage of USMCA removes all imperatives for Trump to capitulate to China’s tariff rollback demands in a phase one trade deal,” says Brian McCarthy, chief strategist for boutique investment research firm Macrolens in Stamford, Connecticut. “Trump’s base will hate phase one and the media will hammer it as a capitulation. Trump knows it’s a political loser,” he says.
Without the passing of USMCA, Trump might have been inclined to wait a little longer on tariffs in order to see if China makes good on its promise to start importing soy again.... [+]Meanwhile, on Monday, China reportedly told government offices that it can no longer use foreign computers and software, thereported today. They supposedly have three years to make the switch to locally owned computer companies like Lenovo and China-coded software.
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