Historical analysis shows that stocks typically have another 18 months to rally after an inversion before equity markets turn lower.
Wang Ying | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
and sent stock futures reeling as traders bet this was the reliable recession indicator and the one to watch. The market rallies more than 15% on average in the 18 months following the inversion, only thereafter turning downward. Sequential losses can start to add up after 18 months, Golub's analysis showed. Yields fall as bond prices rise.
"The BofAML US Economics team suggests that recession risks are rising. The 3-month T-Bill vs the 10-year T-Note curve has already inverted and the risk is that the 2s10s curve inverts as well," BofA technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier.
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
2-year vs. 10-year measure of U.S. yield curve invertsThe yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield on the 2-year note early Wednesday, marking an inversion of the most widely followed measure of...
Read more »
2-year/10-year Treasury yield curve flattest since 2007The spread between the 2-year Treasury note yield and the 10-year note yield touched its flattest level since 2007, amid a searing rally in long-dated...
Read more »
U.S. yields tumble on trade worries, political tensionU.S. Treasury yields fell on Monday, in line with the weak stock market, as trad...
Read more »
US yield curve at flattest level since 2007 amid risk-off sentimentMarket focus is largely attuned to selling in regional markets, after protesters forced Hong Kong's main airport to cancel all flights on Monday.
Read more »
Bond market close to sending biggest recession signal yetThe bond market could soon send its loudest recession warning yet, if the closely watched 10-year yield falls below the 2-year note yield.
Read more »
Falling Bond Yields Make Equities Hard to IgnoreNearly 60% of equities in the S&P 500 offer a dividend yield of at least 1.7%, better than the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury.
Read more »