After the recession, beware the 'jobless' recovery

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After the recession, beware the 'jobless' recovery
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President Trump says the economy will come "roaring back" once coronavirus is corralled. History suggests it won't.

The coronavirus outbreak has almost certainly triggered a recession. Probably a deep one, with massive business closures and millions of lost jobs. With luck, it will be short, with a gusher of fiscal stimulus limiting the damage. “Our economy is going to come roaring back,” President Trump said on March 17.

But recoveries were taking longer even before the Great Recession. The recession that ended in 1991 was relatively mild, yet it took 32 months for the labor market to recover, longer than more severe recessions in 1975 and 1982. The recession ending in 2001 was also mild, yet it took 46 months for the labor market to recover, the longest to date, until the Great Recession hit.

Skill requirements also change faster than they did 40 and 50 years ago. Companies obviously want people with technical skills able to operate complex machinery or do some programming, and the pool of available talent gets a lot bigger when layoffs mount. So companies get pickier, hiring people for part-time or temporary work, that lowers their benefit costs, if they can get away with it. This happens as shareholders are pressuring companies to cut costs—i.e.

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