Inflation, interest rates and a possible recession could weigh on markets. But there are also reasons for bullishness.
through the third quarter, according to Fidelity. Stocks tumbled last year amid concerns over the Federal Reserve's regime of interest-rate hikes to tame the highest inflation in four decades, moves that have made it more expensive for businesses to borrow and for consumers to buy big-ticket items like homes and cars.. The Fed has signaled that it plans more modest interest rates this year than the series of jumbo increases it ordered up in 2022.
That means the S&P 500 — now trading at about 3,800 — could slip another 8% before hitting its bottom, which would mark another painful dip for investors. Other Wall Street experts agree that more pain could be in store early this year, with JPMorgan forecasting that the market will"re-test" the lows of 2022 in the first half of 2023. Although the first months of 2023 may be painful, the stock market could recover later in the year, JPMorgan forecasts.
A recession would impact the stock market by hurting corporate profits, putting downward pressure on valuations as investors generally pay less for companies with eroding net income. Although past performance is no guarantee of future performance, as the saying goes, some experts are pointing to longer-term historical trends to reassure investors that bear markets don't last forever.
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