Analysis - Four global scenarios capturing all reasonable outcomes show why rapprochement between the West and China is vital.
Four global scenarios capturing all reasonable outcomes show why rapprochement between the West and China is vital.
As fighting continues, resources will be diverted from Africa, including aid, investment and humanitarian relief. Already the International Monetary Fund and World Bank regularly revise their growth and poverty alleviation estimations downwards, referring to the potential of a lostInstead of heading towards a sustainable world in which Africa could flourish, lower global growth will hinder income advances and poverty reduction.
The ISS' Current Path forecast is that Africa's economy will expand by a healthy 4.5% from 2024 to 2043 compared to a 2.3% average for the rest of the world. But because of rapid population expansions, 4.5% will translate into GDP per capita growth of only about 1.5% annually in Africa and marginally less in the rest of the world. The main reason is that while the continent's population will expand by 2.2% annually, population growth will be below 0.5% in the rest of the world.
Chart 2 presents four ways the Ukraine conflict could end, associated with the four global scenarios above. In the Sustainable World, it culminates in a negotiated agreement brokered by China and others. Ukraine's territory is restored to its pre-2014 borders, and it joins the EU but not the North Atlantic Treaty Organization . This is the best scenario for Africa and would cause the least disruption to its growth potential and development needs.
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