After nearly 18 years of continuous war, formal peace is now on the agenda, but so is meltdown.
There is a new factor in the debate about the future of Afghanistan, and Western policy towards that country. I am not talking about the willingness of the Trump administration to directly negotiate with the Taliban. That is new, and is welcome
However, ISKP has been explicit that schools are at the frontline and launched 34 attacks on all girls’ schools and educational facilities in the second-half of 2018 alone. These attacks contributed to the 35 humanitarian workers killed or injured in attacks last year, including an IRC staff member. More than 60% of Afghans are under the age of 25 and more than 40% are under the age of 14.
All evidence points to this not only being right, but being practical. A study of 182 peace agreements found that women’s participation in the peace talks led to a 35% increase in the likelihood of an agreement lasting at least 15 years – the difference between a brief pause in the fighting and a sustainable peace.
Third, there are still almost 2.5 million registered Afghan refugees, mainly in Pakistan, and an estimated two million unregistered. This is the second-largest refugee population in the world after Syria. Their ability to return safely will be the true test of success for any peace in Afghanistan.
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