We've turned to advanced analytics to rank each team in the AFC entering Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season.
Reviewing advanced analytics isn't always the easiest task; for example, what exactly are DVOA or EPA? We've known for nearly as long as we've been NFL fans what total yardage is, or average yards per carry. These are simple to understand, yet they don't tell the complete picture of how good or bad a team is.
It's also interesting that while we may not agree with the order of the top seven teams, the advanced analytics show they're are also the seven teams with the best records in the AFC. There can certainly be some debate about whether the Kansas Citybelong where they are currently ranked, but based on the analytics, they are right where they belong. You'll see where they rank later in this article, but with that, here's how the AFC stacks up according to analytics entering Week 11.
For some context on how these rankings were derived: it's important to understand that they're not a subjective ranking of teams. Nine metrics are used to calculate a singular value for each team. The metrics are:The Raiders dropped from 15 to 16 this week, finally taking over the lowest spot. It's not surprising given their ongoing struggles. This team's best ranking is 19th in defensive EPA while ranking 30th or lower in four of our metrics.
The Jaguars are getting closer and closer to falling behind the Patriots in our analytical power rankings, which is mind-blowing. Few would argue that the Patriots are a more talented team, yet here we were. Is it coaching, or an issue with player execution? It's not an offensive problem though, and the analytics prove that. The Jaguars' offense ranks 14th in EPA and 15th in success rate. The problem is the defense, where they are 32nd in EPA and 31st in DVOA.
It was surprising to see the Chargers climb to the number two spot this week after slotting in at number four last week, but the numbers don't lie. They rank very well on the defensive side, where they are second in EPA, sixth in success rate, and eighth in DVOA. Add to this their ranking of second in turnover differential average and fifth in scoring differential average, and you can understand how they've climbed to the number two spot.
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