A year before the nation votes, top Democratic contenders have extended their leads over President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential race, with broad public concerns about the president’s leadership in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. While former Vice President Joe Biden now leads Trump
A year before the nation votes, top Democratic contenders have extended their leads over President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential race, with broad public concerns about the president’s leadership in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
The Democrats have risks of their own. Their support is heavily concentrated in a handful of groups – for example, young adults, those with more education, racial and ethnic minorities, people living in urban areas and those in the states Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Biden is +30 points vs. Trump in those blue states, for example, while just +7 points – not a statistically significant difference – in the 2016 red states.
Leading Democrats currently have the upper hand. Among the party’s three frontrunners, Biden and Sanders lead Trump by an identical 56-39%, as does Warren, by 54-39%. South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and California Sen. Kamala Harris both hold 11-point leads. Vote GroupsThere are vast gender gaps in presidential preference, and they’ve widened. Focusing on the top three contenders, Biden and Warren are in virtual dead heats with Trump among men, but lead him by 30 and 29 points, respectively, among women. Sanders is a scant +8 points among men, while +26 among women.
Notably among other groups, Trump’s not significantly ahead of the Democratic candidates among whites – a group he won by 20 points in 2016. About nine in 10 blacks and roughly two-thirds of Hispanics back the Democrats, similar for these groups in recent presidential elections. Independents, nonwhites and younger adults are most apt to say they’d skip the election given those matchups – three groups that are less likely to turn out in any case. Nonetheless, removing potential skippers from vote preference estimates doesn’t meaningfully change the standings of the Democratic candidates vs. Trump.
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