Jessica Chen Weiss is on the front ranks of a growing number of China experts concerned that U.S. foreign policy suffers from an unhealthy focus on China as a threat. “I think we are in an action-reaction spiral,” Weiss said.
These are key members of a group of China-policy experts whom the sociologist David M. McCourt calls “strategic competitors.” McCourt, a professor at the University of California, Davis,. One is the old “engagers” of years past who helped shape the dominant school of dealing with China from the nineteen-seventies to the twenty-tens; another is the “new cold warriors,” who have long agitated for a tougher line on China.
It’s the last group, the “competitive coexisters,” from which Weiss and the new thinking stem. McCourt told me that he originally wanted to call them the “new engagers,” but members begged him not to, so tarnished is the word “engagement” in Washington. Instead, they acknowledge that the United States is competing with China, but also that it must find a way to live peacefully with the emerging superpower. And they unapologetically argue for more contact with China.“it is a mistake to view the relationship solely through the lens of rivalry.” That month, Harvard University held a conference, called Coexistence 2.0, that featured Weiss and others who, to varying degrees, call for a new approach to managing China-U.S. relations. In the world of these skeptical voices, Weiss has become something of a star. She is invited to conferences around the world, appears on podcasts and in Twitter spaces, and regularly pens commentaries. “Jessica is giving voice to this newer, younger, policy-focussed China-watching voice,” McCourt said. “It’s a new kind of group. It’s not the old China hands.”for the first time since Biden took office. By the low expectations of the current moment, the meeting was a success, with Biden declaring that he saw a low risk of an imminent conflict over Taiwan. The two sides also agreed to meet further, with Blinken due to travel to China in early 2023. But in the longer term, signs point to deteriorating relations. The flipping of the House of Representatives to Republican control ispandemic. That will likely invite countermeasures by China, keeping ties between the two countries contentious, with neither willing to make concessions for fear of looking weak. “There is a growing effort to talk to the Chinese,” Weiss said. “But so much time is spent on how to do so and how not to give the impression that we’re giving an inch.” Weiss is careful not to single out the Biden Administration, where she hopes that her work may be read. Thearticle, she says, was meant to encourage people in the Administration who have had a hard time making a case for a more measured approach because of the consensus to get tough. “I felt that oftentimes the private discussions were taking place in the shadow of a public discussion that made it hard to get things accomplished,” she said. “One goal was to make it possible to have this discussion.” Specifically, Weiss thinks that the Administration should take steps to de-escalate the tensions. It should oppose efforts under way in Congress to raise Taiwan’s diplomatic status, and discourage visits to Taiwan by senior officials, such as the recent trip by the outgoing Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. More broadly, the United States should be willing to offer rewards for better Chinese behavior, rather than solely a series of punishments, and set up more regular contact between Washington and Beijing. While acknowledging China’s actions, Weiss says the risks of a catastrophic conflict are too high not to make a full-court diplomatic press. “Those who take that fatalistic approach have to ask themselves what kind of world they see,” she said. “I think it’s too catastrophic not to test the proposition that there is an alternative.” For those who broadly share her views, Weiss is a welcome change from those who don’t dare say what they think for fear of being seen as weak or soft on China. “She’s extremely brave,” said Susan Thornton, a retired senior U.S. diplomat and now a visiting lecturer at the Yale Law School. “It’s really hard to criticize Biden knowing what else is out there, but the problem is you can’t do nuanced policymaking because anything you do will be ammunition for the other side.” Some China watchers are also skeptical that Xi wants dialogue. At the Harvard conference, Weiss was on a panel with several people who were asked what they thought of her article in. Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College and a visiting professor at Harvard, said he’s seen no evidence that China wants to reciprocate, citing China’s refusal to discuss meaningful arms control. “I don’t see a basis for deep coöperation” with Xi’s China, Erickson said. “I’m sad to say that.” Although she chooses to speak out, Weiss carefully calibrates how she talks about her concerns. She has seen how other Asian American voices have been targeted for racial attacks and so tries to keep her argument as factual and policy-based as possible. Although she doesn’t feel that she is a victim of racism, she is concerned that rhetoric and attacks in the United States could escalate. She limits her use of social media, for example, having seen how other Asian Americans have been attacked and accused of dual loyalty and a lack of patriotism. And, of course, her mother’s fears remain on her mind. “I don’t want to become roadkill, but the stakes are too high to remain on the sideline of this conversation,” she said. “Although I’m an academic, I’m also a citizen, and I fear very much for the direction of this country and the growing enmity and confrontation with China. I’m not seeking that tension, but I want the ideas to take flight.” ♦
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