The first 'triple-dip' La Niña event of the 21st century is waning, and the odds of an El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean are rising, the World Meteorological Organization said.
La Niña conditions are characterized by cooler than average ocean temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, causing a series of weather pattern shifts globally.
For example, La Niña is blamed for setting in motion the failed rainy seasons and dire famine in the Horn of Africa, which isImportantly for global warming, the cool phase of ENSO tends to put a temporary brake on the increase in global average surface temperatures, preventing a new record-setting warm year.
Yet each La Niña year has tended to be the warmest La Niña year on record, as human-emitted greenhouse gases influence the natural ENSO cycle.If and when an El Niño arrives, there may be a slight delay in its effects on global average surface temperatures. It is likely that the effects of the La Niña event will linger longer than usual, leading to continued dryness in the Horn of Africa and elevated risks of flooding in Australia and Southeast Asia.
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