The last two times Democrats suffered catastrophic midterm losses, an early warning of the coming earthquake came out of the Pacific Northwest. This year, the indication from Washington state suggests something very different.
Sen. Patty Murray speaks outside the Capitol on Nov. 2, 2021 in Washington, D.C. | Paul Morigi/Getty ImagesThe last two times Democrats suffered catastrophic midterm losses, an early warning of the coming earthquake came out of the Pacific Northwest.
This year, the aggregate Democratic vote across the state’s House primaries was more than 5 percentage points worse than Democrats’ performance in the 2018 “blue wave” year. But it was also more than 5 percentage points better than Democrats performed in either 2010 or 2014, two Republican wave years.
Republicans still have potential pickup opportunities in Washington, including the closely divided 8th Congressional District. But the results do not align with the collapses in Democratic support in 2010 and 2014 that previewed the GOP waves both years. , spending in the high six figures on the initial ad buy as it sought to expand the Senate battleground. But Murray would have to fall off significantly from her primary margin to lose in the general. In more than 60 House and Senate elections in Washington between 2010 and 2020, Democrats who advanced to the general election did better than their party’s primary vote share more than three-quarters of the time.
“Almost every other conversation we are having at the doors has to do with choice,” Podlodowski said.decision had driven turnout among liberal voters who otherwise might be less motivated in a year when their party had control of Congress and the White House.