The economic aftershocks of the COVID pandemic, which have dominated the economic landscape over the past few years, are steadily dissipating.
Summary These pandemic-induced economic effects are set to be largely supplanted by economic policy changes that are on the horizon in the United States. The American president can act largely unilaterally when it comes to changes in trade policy. During his campaign for the presidency, Donald Trump promised to impose a 10% across-the-board tariff on U.S. trading partners with 60% levied on China.
We expect Congress to fully extend the tax cuts that were legislated in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which are set to expire at the end of 2025. But extension of the tax cuts does not impart fiscal stimulus to the economy, because extension would simply prevent tax rates from reverting to their higher pre-2017 levels. That noted, we expect Congress to legislate some additional tax relief next year, which should help to boost real GDP growth in 2026. Not only will tariffs weigh on U.S.
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