A month that upended the campaign leaves Trump in his strongest position yet

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A month that upended the campaign leaves Trump in his strongest position yet
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Republicans are united coming out of their convention, while Democrats are divided over the fate of President Biden’s candidacy.

A person holds up a “Fire Joe Biden” sign as former president Donald Trump speaks at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on Thursday.

Meanwhile, many Democrats despair that President Biden could lead them to a broad defeat that could leave the White House, House and Senate in Republican control. But they also worry that, even if the president yields to calls to step aside, a possible replacement, whether Vice President Harris or one of several governors talked about as possible candidates, would carry significant risks as well.This campaign has long been something of a contradiction: static but potentially volatile.

A Democrat who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide a candid assessment of the state of the campaign offered a similar, if less harsh view. Republicans today, this strategist said, remind him of Democrats in 2008 when Barack Obama was running his first campaign. Republicans, he said, are “psyched, 100 percent behind their guy … and they think they’re going to win.”

Electoral college projections, based only in part on polling, show a deteriorating map for Biden, with states such as Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota that the president won in 2020 and counted as almost certainly in his column now seen as potentially competitive, though more evidence is needed to make a fuller assessment.

The second question is whether, after a generally successful convention, Trump reverts to past practices and behavior — as a candidate given to wild claims, grievances, lies about the 2020 election being stolen and sometimes rambling discourse that can put a focus on the fact that he is, at 78, only a few years younger than Biden.

Republican strategists argue that the smartest course for Trump from here is to be steady rather than provocative, calm rather than inflammatory, a steady-as-you-go campaign that keeps attention on Biden’s record and avoids unforced errors. But Trump is nothing if not predictable. He has never before exhibited such sustained restraint and message discipline, and his record remains the single most powerful motivator for Democratic voters to turn out in November.

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