A long road ahead to decide Syria’s future after rapid end to Assad’s rule

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A long road ahead to decide Syria’s future after rapid end to Assad’s rule
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For the first time in 50 years, the question of how Syria will be governed is wide open. The end of the Assad family’s rule is for many Syrians a moment of mixed joy and fear, of the total unknown. The insurgency that swept President Bashar Assad out of power is rooted in Islamist jihadi fighters.

An opposition fighter steps on a broken bust of the late Syria n President Hafez Assad in Damascus , Syria , on Sunday Dec. 8, 2024. A man tries to take a chandelier as people search for belongings in the ransacked private residence of Syria n President Bashar Assad in the Malkeh district of Damascus , Syria , on Sunday, Dec. 8, 2024.

Government officials who remained in Damascus as Assad fled — including Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali — have met with the rebels to discuss the transfer of power. “Everyone’s saying, especially rebels on the ground, ‘That framework is no longer applicable, because there is no longer a regime. We’re not going to give the regime in politics what they lost through military means,’” Idlbi said.

So far the civil peace seems to be holding. The insurgents have appeared disciplined, working to keep order, with no sign of reprisals. Experts say only time will tell what post-Assad Syria will look like. There are multiple armed opposition groups, including forces in the south who are distinct from HTS and the Turkish-backed groups in the north. Internal fractures within the HTS-led movement, “which may become more salient in the weeks and months to come, may lead to discord and threaten Syrian stability,” Ozcelik said.

Syria’s Alawite population is feeling particularly vulnerable. Assad and his family were Alawites — a branch of Shia Islam — and many among the Sunni insurgents see the community as his loyalists.Kurdish-led forces allied with the United States have run a semi-autonomous zone in Syria’s northeast for years, where they have been a key player in the fight against the Islamic State militant group.

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