A Hovercraft Full of Eels

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A Hovercraft Full of Eels
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Decision-making in a stressful world

We expect science to deliver clear answers, but some debates mix evidence and values in ways data can’t resolve. Recognizing that helps explain why disagreement persists. We expect science to deliver clear answers, but some debates mix evidence and values in ways data can’t resolve.

Recognizing that helps explain why disagreement persists. Why expert predictions often fail—and why forecasting is the wrong way to judge what real expertise actually delivers.AI doesn’t just automate tasks—it can make dishonesty easier to rationalize and more likely to happen. The question is whether we’ll notice when we let it. AI doesn’t just automate tasks—it can make dishonesty easier to rationalize and more likely to happen. The question is whether we’ll notice when we let it.We often avoid facts not out of indifference but because we suspect they'll wake up values we'd rather keep quiet. We often avoid facts not out of indifference but because we suspect they'll wake up values we'd rather keep quiet.Small, statistically significant results can become big stories when they fit the right narrative—especially if we’re motivated to believe them. Small, statistically significant results can become big stories when they fit the right narrative—especially if we’re motivated to believe them.Conversational AIs are getting better at sounding human. But when their goals misalign with ours, the consequences can be surprisingly personal. Conversational AIs are getting better at sounding human. But when their goals misalign with ours, the consequences can be surprisingly personal.August 18, 2025 ChatGPT says I’m brilliant. Every time. But that’s not character—it’s code. And it misses what really matters. ChatGPT says I’m brilliant. Every time. But that’s not character—it’s code. And it misses what really matters. When solutions are everywhere, our standards shift. Are we solving real problems—or just creating new ones to fix?AI can explain its answers. So can we. But what if those explanations are just stories we tell to make sense of what we don't really understand? AI can explain its answers. So can we. But what if those explanations are just stories we tell to make sense of what we don't really understand? A recent article argues for a path to improve scientific publishing. But are its suggestions reasonable?When science serves a cause, truth takes a back seat. This post explores how activism distorts research and why it matters. When science serves a cause, truth takes a back seat. This post explores how activism distorts research and why it matters.AI can generate creative ideas, but can it make rational decisions? This post explores AI's strengths, limitations, and the role of human oversight in decision-making. AI can generate creative ideas, but can it make rational decisions? This post explores AI's strengths, limitations, and the role of human oversight in decision-making. As large language models become more advanced, it becomes harder to differentiate quality responses from artful bullsh*t.We possess a variety of beliefs, but they aren't all the same. What differentiates them, and how genuine they are? We possess a variety of beliefs, but they aren't all the same. What differentiates them, and how genuine they are?Biases stem from fundamental beliefs and context. Learn how these beliefs shape reasoning, why debiasing fails, and what it takes to challenge them effectively. Biases stem from fundamental beliefs and context. Learn how these beliefs shape reasoning, why debiasing fails, and what it takes to challenge them effectively.AI offers potential value for organizations. But might start-ups be in the best position to capitalize on this new technology? AI offers potential value for organizations. But might start-ups be in the best position to capitalize on this new technology?Without human experience, there is no science. Acknowledging the interplay between the two is essential to benefitting from scientific evidence. Without human experience, there is no science. Acknowledging the interplay between the two is essential to benefitting from scientific evidence. Many companies have instituted in-office requirements. But might managers and employees find workarounds to these?Self Tests are all about you. Are you outgoing or introverted? Are you a narcissist? Does perfectionism hold you back? Find out the answers to these questions and more with Psychology Today.

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