There are lessons to be learned — and some to be ignored — from poll results so far
San Francisco Mayor London Breed was surging — until she dropped. Daniel Lurie languished in third place — until he shot to the top.
Voter polls are cherished by campaigns, particularly if the results are promising for their candidates, and by the media, which yearn for fact-based backdrops for their coverage of an arduous, monthslong election cycle. But larger trends, particularly those common among several polls, are treated with greater credibility than, for example, who comes out on top after the fourth round of a simulated ranked-choice vote tabulation.
Back-to-back polls released last month showed Lurie performing better, including a David Binder Research survey that showed Lurie defeating Breed in the fourth round of ranked-choice vote tabulation. Lurie’s campaign and his supporters touted the polls as evidence that his message is resonating with voters. His opponents have largely dismissed them, suggesting his rise in second- and third-choice votes is merely evidence that his unending cascade of advertisements is being seen by San Franciscans.
Method to the madnessThere are several keys to polls, including over what media they’re conducted. It would be a red flag if, in 2024, a poll was only done over the phone. Conversely, a poll only conducted online might exclude too many likely voters. Finding the right balance can be a challenge for pollsters.
2024 San Francisco Election 2024 San Francisco Elections Polling 2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election Daniel Lurie London Breed Mark Farrell Ahsha Safai Aaron Peskin
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