A double-dip recession is forming via YahooFinance's rickjnewman
President Trump is banking on a quick recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and 15 million jobs lost as businesses shut down nationwide. For a while, it looked like he might get one.
The implications for the presidential election should obviously worry President Trump. No president in 100 years has won reelection in the midst or immediate aftermath of a recession. If Trump has a chance, it would depend on a sharp improvement in the economy that Americans feel well before Election Day, plus probably a bit of forgiveness from voters who feel the recession isn’t necessarily Trump’s fault.That’s not the way things have been going for Trump.
Trump won all six of those swing states in 2016, providing his margin of victory over Hillary Clinton. He probably needs to win at least four of them to prevail in 2020. At the moment, Biden leads by mid-single digits in most of those states. Morning Consult’s data suggests job losses are spreading from sectors hit directly by shutdowns to other parts of the economy that support them, or are now hurting from the overall shock to demand. “People outside the service sectors are starting to feel this recession,” Leer says. “The restaurant closes, it’s not able to pay its bills, the bank doesn’t hire the lawyer to review its documents, whatever it may be. That’s how you get second- and third-order effects.
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