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In the dusty, treeless outback of Southern Australia, a brand new mining camp is home to a hundred workers, putting in 12-hour days, two weeks at a time. Dozens of trucks are scattered across the vast acreage, mounted with towering rigs drilling more than 2 kilometers underground. All are focused on the hunt for one of the world’s most coveted minerals: copper.
Copper’s bull narrative, which helped prices hit an all-time high in May, is well understood. Electrification, wealthier populations and an expanding, energy-hungry technology sector are vast new sources of demand. An electric vehicle requires roughly three times the copper that goes into a conventional car, and the energy transition won’t happen without enough red metal for grids, batteries and chips.
“Mining is cyclical, and a key factor driving the trend of buying over building is the point in the cycle,” said Campbell Cooper, a Melbourne-based advisor at Greenhill & Co., an investment bank. “Recent years have also seen an acceleration in the cost of building new mine capacity. Arguably that cost may not be fully reflected in equity valuations, making buying more attractive.
“Ultimately the industry needs continual investment in exploration and new discoveries. M&A is important to put assets into the hands of the optimal owners, but will not materially increase overall industry supply,” said Sam Brodovcky, head of metals and mining M&A at Standard Chartered Plc.
Richard Schodde, a veteran geologist and expert on South Australia’s copper belt, puts the number of discoveries made each year at only a handful. He describes BHP’s lucky strike at Oak Dam in 2018 “was probably the most spectacular” of recent years.
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