The simple answer: We don't know.
Atmospheric drag has been pulling the rocket body lower and lower ever since. The latest observations and models suggest that theThe Aerospace Corporation, for example,an atmospheric reentry on Friday at 7:20 a.m. EDT , plus or minus three hours. That big window puts some of North America, nearly all of Central America, much of Africa and a slice of southeastern Australia, among other areas, in the potential line of fire for falling space junk.
Though much of the rocket body will burn up in the atmosphere when it comes down on Friday, some of the sturdier pieces will survive all the way to the ground, posing a risk to people and infrastructure on the reentry path. "The general rule of thumb is that 20-40% of the mass of a large object will reach the ground, but the exact number depends on the design of the object," The Aerospace Corporation wrote in aSpace-based sensors using HEO Inspect caught the #CZ5B rocket as it continues its uncontrolled re-entry back to Earth.Our space-to-space imagery and intelligence supports strategic decision-making and accountability efforts by making space transparent.Powered by @Satellogic pic.twitter.
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