Balochistan is at the centre of Pakistan’s economic pitch to Washington and Beijing. The latest attacks highlight how fragile those promises are.
Balochistan Violence : In September, inside the Oval Office, Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir made a carefully choreographed gesture. With Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif by his side, he opened a briefcase and revealed neatly arranged mineral samples.
The message to US President Donald Trump was that Pakistan was ready to open its mineral wealth to American investment.Five months later, that pitch looks far less secure.Pakistan’s most valuable mineral deposits are in Balochistan, the country’s largest province by land area and its poorest by every economic measure. The region has endured decades of separatist violence rooted in anger over political exclusion, control of resources and the heavy presence of security forces.On Saturday, coordinated attacks across the province brought those tensions violently back into focus. Fighters struck at more than a dozen locations, killing 31 civilians and 17 security personnel, while the military said it killed 145 attackers.For Islamabad, the timing could not be worse. Balochistan is not only central to Pakistan’s outreach to Washington. It is also the backbone of China’s long-term economic ambitions in the country.Within hours of the attacks, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi pointed finger across the border. “These were not normal terrorists. India is behind these attacks. I can tell you for sure that India planned these attacks along with these terrorists,” he said, offering no public evidence.The attackers were identified as members of the Baloch Liberation Army, a separatist group that has fought the Pakistani state for decades while demanding independence for Balochistan. In a video circulated online, BLA leader Bashir Zeb described the violence as part of the group’s “Herof 2.0” campaign, following a similar wave of coordinated assaults in August 2024.New Delhi dismissed Pakistan’s allegations a day later. “Instead of parroting frivolous claims each time there is a violent incident, it would do better to focus on addressing long-standing demands of its people in the region,” Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told the media.Beyond the diplomatic sparring, analysts say the attacks highlight deeper problems that Islamabad cannot sidestep while courting global investors.Balochistan’s unrest did not emerge overnight. The province is home to roughly 15 million people out of Pakistan’s population of 240 million. Despite sitting on reserves of oil, gas, coal, gold and copper, it is the country’s poorest region. Revenue from these resources flows largely to the federal government, fuelling resentment among local communities.Annexed by Pakistan in 1948, Balochistan has witnessed several uprisings since the country’s birth. The present phase of rebellion began in the early 2000s, when demands for a greater share of local resources hardened into calls for independence. The state’s response relied heavily on security operations. Human rights groups accuse authorities of killing and forcibly disappearing thousands of ethnic Baloch suspected of sympathising with separatists.Violence has escalated in recent years. In March, BLA fighters attempted to hijack the Jaffer Express, a passenger train travelling from Quetta to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. More than 300 passengers were rescued after an operation lasting over a day. At least 33 fighters were killed.According to the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, Balochistan recorded at least 254 attacks in 2025, a 26 percent rise from the year before, leaving more than 400 people dead.This surge came days after Pakistan hosted a minerals summit aimed at attracting Chinese firms. China has already poured billions into Balochistan, including the development of Gwadar, Pakistan’s only deep-sea port and a critical node in the $60bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.In September, US-based mining firm USSM signed a $500m memorandum of understanding to invest in mineral extraction.Balochistan’s instability is continuing rather than occasional. It is rooted in long-standing grievances over control of resources, political exclusion and sustained militarisation. Large-scale extraction projects continue to carry high risk and require heavy security, making them viable mainly for state-backed players rather than market-driven Western investors. Even projects linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor have faced repeated attacks, forcing the deployment of thousands of troops to safeguard limited infrastructure.China and the United States are believed to be aware of the risks. Beijing has CPEC investments in the country, and Washington signed a minerals deal in September last year, a whole year after Herof 1.0. Both countries went ahead with the commitments even after earlier attacks, showing they accept the security risks for strategic reasons.While the violence can worry investors, these deals are made between governments and are driven more by politics than by market forces.The economic stakes Are high. Pakistan narrowly avoided default in 2023 with an IMF bailout and has since secured $7bn under its latest programme, the 25th in its history. Despite official efforts to sell Pakistan as open for business, foreign investment continues to slide. Central bank data show that foreign direct investment fell to $808m between July and December of fiscal year 2026, down from $1.425bn a year earlier.Ongoing violence is viewed as a major deterrent to investment. In an environment marked by extreme volatility, investors are reluctant to commit capital, especially when the crisis is seen as tied to Islamabad’s handling of the province. Balochistan’s long and porous border with Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province further reinforces its reputation as a high-risk zone.Recent attacks have also fed into a broader regional narrative. Following the assault on the Jaffer Express, Pakistan formally designated Baloch separatist groups as “Fitna al-Hindustan”. Such claims are seen as requiring credible evidence, particularly when attacks occur in broad daylight and are carried out by local actors. The ability of such strikes to unfold in major cities has raised serious questions about intelligence and local security failures.The repeated focus on India is viewed as a familiar pattern. It is aimed at reframing Balochistan as a security issue rather than a political conflict, helping deflect internal scrutiny and attract external sympathy. At the same time, there is growing recognition that enforced disappearances, lack of political autonomy and deep economic marginalisation lie at the heart of the unrest.Prolonged instability is also seen as potentially serving external interests, including efforts to limit China’s footprint in the region. Funding and support for militancy are viewed by some as a way to keep the province in a constant state of uncertainty.At the core, however, internal fault lines is the primary drivers of violence. External factors are regarded as secondary. Without addressing these underlying gaps, Pakistan risks seeing its ambitious promises to both Washington and Beijing weaken on the ground in Balochistan.
Balochistan Attacks Pakistan Pakistan China Investment Risk Trump Pakistan Mineral Deal CPEC Security Concerns Pakistan Internal Insurgency Baloch Separatist Violence Balochistan Violence Pakistan China Relations Pakistan US Mineral Deal CPEC Security Risks
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