Early trends show NDA dominating and Mahagathbandhan lagging, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj struggles to make even a faint appearance in Bihar’s electoral map.
Bihar Election Results 2025 : Early trends of the Bihar election results point to a visible pattern that the state’s political battlefield is being dominated by familiar giants while Prashant Kishor ’s much-talked-about Jan Suraaj is nowhere to be seen.
The ruling National Democratic Alliance , comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal or JD in addition to other smaller parties, has opened decisive leads across most regions, and the opposition Mahagathbandhan is struggling to keep pace.But the more curious story is the silence around a party that once promised to “reshape Bihar’s politics from the ground up”.The early trends clearly show the NDA sweeping past the halfway mark, with the BJP and the JD putting up confident numbers. Though still fighting, the Mahagathbandhan is trailing in most clusters. Even within the coalition, the RJD is ahead of its partner Congress, but still unable to match the NDA’s spread.A look at Bihar’s vote share across past elections tells its own slow-moving political story. In 2005, the RJD secured 23.46 percent of the vote, while JD stood at 20.46 percent, the BJP at 15.65 percent and the Congress at 6.09 percent.In the 2010 election, the RJD’s vote share fell to 18.84 percent even as the JD climbed to 22.58 percent, the BJP registered 16.49 percent and the Congress improved to 8.37 percent.The 2015 polls saw the RJD at 18.35 percent, the JD at 16.83 percent, the BJP leading that year with 24.42 percent and the Congress at 6.66 percent.By 2020, the RJD had risen again to 23.11 percent, the JD slipped to 15.39 percent, the BJP settled at 19.46 percent and the Congress reached 9.48 percent.Seat shares over the years also reflect how the balance has shifted from one election to the next. In 2005, the RJD won 75 seats, the JD took 55, the BJP secured 37 and the Congress failed to open its account.The 2010 election changed the picture dramatically with the the RJD reduced to 22 seats, the JD jumping to 115, the BJP climbing to 91 and the Congress managing 4.In 2015, the RJD bounced back with 80 seats, the JD claimed 71, the BJP took 53 and the Congress captured 27.In 2020, the tally moved again with the RJD at 75 seats, the JD at 43, the BJP at 74 and the Congress at 19.Today’s early trends build on that history. The NDA has surged past the majority mark in the first few hours of counting, with strong performances by both its key partners. The Mahagathbandhan is behind, and within it, the RJD is emerging as one of the leading individual parties in several constituencies even though the alliance as a whole is lagging.The absence of the Jan Suraaj from this picture stands out. The party is not visible in the early seat charts, and wherever its vote share appears on constituency boards, the numbers are too small to influence tight contests.The Prashant Kishor-led party stepped into its first assembly election this month with over 200 candidates after initially aiming for all 243 seats. The list shrank when the party faced defections, withdrawals and nomination-stage setbacks.The party’s founding chief had set a high bar for his organisation and famously said that if his party could not meet its target, he would treat it as a personal defeat.Exit polls, however, had already predicted an underwhelming debut for the Jan Suraaj. The most optimistic pollsters offered no more than five seats to the party. Kishor himself did not contest, and attention has shifted to whether the party’s vote share can show even a faint imprint on the strongholds of either the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan.As counting continues, the broader story of Bihar’s verdict is still unfolding. But the early rhythm is suggests that the established players are reclaiming the field, while Kishor’s much-publicised experiment is struggling even to register its presence.
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