The Chiefs wanted the ball second in overtime in the Super Bowl. The 49ers wanted the ball first -- and got it. Did Kyle Shanahan really make the wrong call?
Jeff Saturday and the"Get Up" crew debate who should shoulder the blame after the 49ers' OT loss against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. , with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here:, but one conversation that keeps happening has pulled me back in.
Knowing what you need is the benefit of getting the ball second. For Team 1, getting the ball third is going to be a bigger advantage than knowing what it needs and taking it second, but the trade-off is it might never get to realize that opportunity. Going second means Team 2 always get the second-mover advantage on that second possession and it can make its decisions accordingly. That's the trade-off being made by choosing first or second.
They could also have a conservative coach who makes suboptimal decisions on fourth downs in general and leans on"trusting his defense" and punts as opposed to trying a long field goal and running the risk of handing the opposing team a short field. We've seen coaches make inexplicable decisions during the regular season; in 2022, Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett' chances of converting were better than that of picking up a fourth-and-5.
Move the ball forward 20 more yards. Now it's fourth-and-6 from the 16-yard line, which means a 34-yard field goal. Over the past five seasons, kickers have converted 34-yard field goals just under 90% of the time, and eliminating blowout scenarios, teams have converted fourth-and-6 just over 47% of the time.
Let's say it becomes clear Team 2 will always go for 2 after scoring a touchdown to prevent the third possession from occurring. Does it make sense for Team 1's strategy to react?If you want to talk about a dominating situation, consider what would happen after a Team 1 touchdown on the opening drive. If it goes for two and converts, Team 2 would be forced to drive the length of the field, score a touchdown and then convert its own 2-pointer just to keep the game going.
It's also important to adjust these models for the game situation and teams and players involved. While those adjustments might not result in dramatically different changes to the findings and conversations above, there are allowances teams might want to make when they're playing against a quarterback like Mahomes. Many have suggested Shanahan got that wrong."Shanahan screwed up because he gave the ball to Mahomes with the chance to win the game with a touchdown.
The Chiefs probably would have gone for two if the teams had traded touchdowns, and depending on how you look at it, that could have been a problem for the 49ers. Over the past five seasons, Kansas City has converted a league-best 75% of its 2-point tries. I'll also note it has attempted only 12 over that stretch, tied for the second fewest of any team.
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