16 named storms, including eight hurricanes, are forecast for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, according to predictions released by Colorado State University. Four of the hurricanes will become major storms of Category 3 to 5, the projections indicate.
Four of the hurricanes will become major storms of Category 3 to 5, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, the projections indicate for the season that runs from June 1 to November 30. The chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall in 2020 along the US coastline is 69%, compared with an average over the last century of 52%, researchers said. There is a 95% chance -- the average is 84% -- that at least one hurricane this year will make landfall in the US.
What it's like riding out Hurricane Maria 01:29"The last season with four or more major hurricanes was the record damage-causing year of 2017 that saw Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria," CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said."All caused significant damage in the US and Caribbean." Six major hurricanes formed that year in the Atlantic basin. The seasonal average is 12 named storms, including six hurricanes.
— Philip Klotzbach March 19, 2020 "Also, the tropical Atlantic is quite a bit warmer than it has been the past few years at this time," Klotzbach said.Sea surface temperatures are one of the ingredients needed to fuel hurricanes. The warmer the ocean, the more fuel available for the storms to tap into.Although four major hurricanes are forecast this season, that doesn't mean any necessarily will hit the US coast.
What is a 'hurricane wall'? 01:16"We find that there is just too much uncertainty with the future state of both and the Atlantic prior to that time," Klotzbach says. Still, these statistical and dynamical models fail in some years, the researchers made clear."Last year, we forecast a near-average hurricane season and ended up a bit more active than we thought," Klotzbach said.Their April 2019 forecast predicted five hurricanes for that year; six were observed.
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