Market Overview Analysis by Michael Kramer covering: Euro US Dollar, US Dollar Japanese Yen, S&P 500, US Dollar Index Futures. Read Michael Kramer's latest article on Investing.com
This weekend, we will examine some of the long-term market cycles across various assets to help set the stage for the coming months as we begin to look toward 2025. All charts below come from cycles.org, which is from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, of which I am a member.. It has marked some notable tops and bottoms in the past, particularly in 2000 and 2008 for both the tops and bottoms. More recently, it marked the 2022 top and was slightly late in marking the 2023 low.
The setup shows that the index is now just about peaking on the cycle, while the cyclic RSI indicates that the index has already reached overbought conditions. This suggests that we are nearing a point where the index either consolidates in a sideways pattern, similar to what was seen in 2015 and 2016 or in 2018 and much of 2019, or experiences a pullback similar to that of 2000, 2008, and 2022.
Given valuations today are much more akin to the 2000 and 2008 cycles, I would favor a sharper pullback, as stocks weren’t all that expensive in 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2019, by comparison.). The euro has gone through a fairly long period of sideways consolidation, and now the 183-week cycle suggests that this consolidation is coming to an end, with the next leg of the dollar strengthening approaching.
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