Some predictions for the season ahead.
But beyond those three games, a marathon awaits. As much as every game may ultimately matter, there is a lot of baseball to be played before any conclusions are drawn.1: Positive pitching regression helps Diamondbacks make playoffs Regression is a cruel reality — unless it's working in a team's favor.
The fact is, almost everything that could have gone wrong for the D-backs' pitching staff in 2025 did go wrong.. Their No. 1 starter had the worst ERA of his major league career. The team converted a staggeringly-low 59% of save opportunities — and that's not even discussing the brutal slate of injuries Arizona had to endure. There is still certainly a new low that could be found, but I'm predicting positive regression for Arizona's collective staff. Maybe it won't look like Cy Young-caliber numbers, but slight-to-moderate improvement that simply comes as a result of the little things — better defense, a slight uptick in velocity, etc. This may not seem exactly bold, but the bold part of the prediction is that these marginal amounts of positive regression could end up swinging Arizona's record significantly. The Diamondbacks went 21-28 in one-run games in 2025. Arizona would have made the playoffs with a record of 87-75 if every one-run game result flipped to its opposite outcome. Even a minor decrease in ERA , could have easily held on to some of their numerous blown games, and that was what hurt the D-backs the most in 2025.Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field in Phoenix, on Sept. 24, 2025. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Ryne Nelson pitched to a 3.39 ERA in the 2025 season and was Arizona's best starting pitcher. I believe he has an even higher gear left to reach. Nelson began the 2025 season in the bullpen, and had an unsightly ERA in that role. In his 23 starts, his actual results came out to a— an ace-like number. On top of that, Nelson was held to strict pitch counts and innings restrictions due to the reliever-to-starter transition. Once those restrictions began to loosen, Nelson consistently delivered efficient, lengthy outings. He will enter 2026 without needing that leash, and looked to be even sharper in spring training than he was a year ago.) was reading in the 97-98 MPH range even in the final inning of his last Cactus League start. Nelson has more to offer, and he will have an opportunity to do so in 2026.Arizona Diamondbacks' Jordan Lawlar reacts after scoring on a sacrifice fly hit by Tim Tawa against the Cincinnati Reds in the first inning during a spring training game on March 16, 2026, at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images It has not been an easy journey for Jordan Lawlar, and he knows that as well as anyone. But he handled his transition to an outfield role extremely well in spring training, and is showing signs of significant improvement offensively. He's been solid in the outfield, relying on premium athleticism to make plays. At the plate, he's been hitting the ball hard, with aMore importantly, he took walks at a near-17% clip, limited strikeouts and showed an ability to hit off-speed pitches from right-handers — all areas he needs to improve at the major league level. It may not be NL MVP numbers, but I predict Lawlar will put forward a top-four season offensively in 2026, keeping pace with some of the D-backs' top stars — with some highlight-reel defense sprinkled in.ALEX D'AGOSTINO Born and raised in the desert, Alex D'Agostino is a lifelong follower of Arizona sports. Alex writes for Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI and also Arizona Cardinals ON SI. He previously covered the Diamondbacks for FanSided's VenomStrikes. Follow Alex on Twitter @AlexDagAZ
United States Latest News, United States Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Houston Open Sleeper Picks and Predictions: Lowry Goes Low in Lone Star StateFree 2026 Houston Open Sleeper Picks and Predictions.
Read more »
2026 MLB preview: Division breakdowns, World Series predictions, moreWell, it's Groundhog Day, and the rest of MLB is once again chasing the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who have somehow gotten
Read more »
2026 MLB predictions: Playoffs, World Series, MVPs and moreCan the Dodgers three-peat? Will Skubal and Skenes win another Cy Young? Our experts make their predictions for the 2026 baseball season.
Read more »
2026 Texas Children's Houston Open predictions: PGA Tour odds, picks, best betsCheck out our betting guide for the 2026 Houston Open.
Read more »
Meet the 2026 Phillies: Season predictions, key questions for every playerLet's take a look at a largely familiar $317 million roster and a question that will face each player in 2026.
Read more »
2026 MLB season predictions: Will the new-look Rangers improve?Plus, our experts predict World Series winners, home run leaders, trade deadline moves and more.
Read more »