Fresh off one of the biggest longshot winners in golf betting history, the PGA Tour returns for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where Scottie Scheffler has the shortes
Fresh off one of the biggest longshot winners in golf betting history, the PGA Tour returns for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, where Scottie Scheffler has the shortest odds to win a tournament this year.
Scheffler is a staggering +170 at FanDuel to win the Byron Nelson. Si Woo Kim is closest to him in the odds at +1300. I haven’t seen odds as short as Scheffler’s to win a full-field golf tournament in my years covering golf betting. That’s a far cry from Aaron Rai, who won the PGA Championship last week as a staggering +17500 longshot on FanDuel.
Then again, Scottie won the Byron Nelson last year at 31-under par. Easy to see why the World No. 1 is so heavily favored in an event without many other heavyweights. Sunday, May 24Obviously the headliner, Scheffler has made this a normal stop on Tour for most of his career. He lives nearby and, as a fellow native Texan, holds Byron Nelson in high regard.
His putter held him back at the PGA Championship, where he lost over a stroke and a half during the event. But his approach game is back to elite levels. He had three runner-up finishes before a T14 at the PGA Championship. He’s plenty motivated.
: Has Brooksie become a PGA Tour mule? This is his third tournament in a row. He played Myrtle Beach, the PGA Championship, and now here. His putter remains an issue, but he’s clearly motivated to get a win and secure his spot in the PGA Tour signature events next year.
This will be his 10th event of the season. He has one Top 10 and four other Top 20s. He’s grinding. The question is, will it pay off with a win?
The only other time he played here, he missed the cut. Temper expectations. I debated putting Spieth in the notables section, but I had to get Brooks in there, playing three events straight. Still can’t believe that.
Anyway, Spieth has played here four times, with three Top 10s and a missed cut when his game was in the gutters in 2024. His best finishes were 4th last year and 2nd in 2022. You can get aggressive and target him for a Top 10 at +146. But I feel more comfortable in the Top 20 market with ties.
He was T18 at the PGA Championship, T18 at the Cadillac, and has six Top 20s including ties in 13 events this year. He has yet to crack the Top 10 market. The teenager who turned pro out of high school has proven he’s among the elite on the Korn Ferry Tour, notching two Top 5s. He also had a 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open and a T9 at the Myrtle Beach Classic, two alternate field events.
He was T16 in his most recent Korn Ferry Tour event last week. I could see him near the top of the leaderboard here. Those odds feel like a value play. It’s been three years since Kim won on Tour, but he’s been close with five T6 or better finishes this year.
He can go low in his opening round, as evidenced by his first round 63 at the AmEx, and he has a lot of strong finishes at the Byron Nelson . He’s 24th on Tour in first-round scoring average. He’ll need a hot approach game and putter. I’m not breaking the bank, but I could see him getting off to a fast start.
Brian Giuffra is the VP of Betting Content at Minute Media and has been with the company since 2016. He's a fan of the Knicks, Giants, wine and bourbon, usually consuming them in that order.
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