The Vikings, 49ers and Browns have big decisions to make in this draft. Let's help them with some advice in the first round.
Will Deion Sanders hinder Shedeur's draft stock? ? It's an inexact science. In my time covering the league, most of the research I've seen has suggested that teams don't have much ability to pick between players at similar tiers, which has steered me toward the idea that trading down is best.
, though, I was surprised by the results. It's true that teams that trade up lose more often than they win, but when they're right, the players they land are successful enough to mostly make up for the times when they trade up and whiff. Between 2011 and 2023, in terms of expected value, teams collectively paid about the right price for what they got in return.While that's only one study, it seems more realistic to suggest there are scenarios in which trading up make sense. There are certainly types of trades that teams should avoid -- trading a third-rounder in next year's draft for a fourth-rounder this year is still a terrible idea -- but we need to apply more context to come to a conclusion about those moves. I'd argue that most teams should still lean more toward the trading down side of the equation, but each team'son April 24? And which should be aiming to move down and amass extra selections? I've identified five franchises that should focus on trading down and three that should be most interested in moving up., though, the Browns are desperately short of significant homegrown talent on rookie deals. The mass of picks the organization enjoyed from their various trade downs during the tanking years have mostly graduated to second contracts or left the organization. With no first-round picks and just one second-round pick between 2022 and 2024, they have one clear starter from their last three drafts in slot cornerbackwas excellent as a rookie before struggling last season, but there's just not a lot of cost-controlled talent on this roster.weighing them down for the next two years, they aren't in position to go on free agent spending sprees. The only deal they've handed out for more than $5 million per season is defensive tackleIf the Browns want a quarterback and think Sanders is their man, they probably need to take him at No. 2. The Giants , Raiders or Jets could also justify drafting him in the top 10. For whatever skepticism there isare getting paid, Sanders doesn't have to project to be a superstar to hint at more surplus value than any other non-quarterback in this draft. It might be painful to miss out on players perceived to be sure things at the top of the board, but there are no guarantees with any prospects. Consider the, when the Nos. 2 and 3 overall picks were players who were perceived as elite prospects at their respective positions in edge rusher. The Commanders and Lions passed on the ability to draft quarterbacks If the Browns aren't targeting Sanders, they need to add more picks, especially in the top 100 selections. They have theheading into April, but I'd argue they could use even more. Spreading some of that capital across additional picks would be a wise move given how they need to recover fromLikewise, the 49ers find themselves in a difficult predicament as a result of their trades and a quarterback contract. They are much happier withwas that San Francisco would pay Purdy $65 million per year on a new contract. Anything less than would be aas their executives and coaches have joined other teams, which has helped supplement their missing draft capital. They've acquired a couple of picks by trading Lance and running backlast year. Purdy was their only starter from the 2022 draft last season. Their nine picks in 2023 produced kicker, who was benched late in the year. The 2024 draft might project to be general manager John Lynch's best, with the 49ers adding a pair of promising midround picks in guardcould cycle back into the starting lineup in 2025, but that's more a product of the offseason subtractions than forcing their way into the lineup with their play.this offseason lays bare the issues with their current roster. They're still going to try and compete while McCaffrey, offensive tackleare around, but they need to build a new core around those veterans -- fast. They have serious needs along the defensive and offensive lines and at cornerback.as part of an accounting mistake. Even with a full complement of picks, it wouldn't hurt them to drop down from No. 11 if there's an opportunity to add a Day 2 pick. If they can add multiple starters, they have a shot at righting the ship quickly in 2025.Ryan Clark argues the 49ers should trade Christian McCaffrey while his value is high, saying they need to focus on more pieces to rebuild.The Lions, on the other hand, are in position to be aggressive. With a solid cap situation and excellent drafts under general manager Brad Holmes over the past few years, Detroit has plenty of cost-controlled talent on rookie deals. I count eight above-average-or-better players on rookie contracts who will start in 2025. Every team can always stand to add more talent on the bottom half of their roster, but the Lions are one of the deepest teams in the league. What they have are two glaring holes, however. One is in a place that's usually a position of strength: guard, where they've moved on fromare currently penciled in to compete for a starting role. The Lions could still try to address this with a free-agent addition, such asTheir bigger problem is at edge rusher, where they've struggled to find a secondary player on the other side ofwas productive in a backup role, but the Lions have a massive need for a pass rusher. As happy as Holmes might be with early picks, such as running back, there's a reason teams prioritize players at the top of the positional spectrum: It's harder to find elite edge rushers than it is running backs or safeties. Does adding that edge rusher help Detroit over the hump in the NFC Championship GameIt's fun to imagine the Lions moving all the way up in the first round with an all-in move for top-ranked edge rusher, though? This might be the time for Detroit to take a bigger swing on that second edge rusher next, especially with Hutchinson now eligible for what will surely be a significant contract extension.offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, they decided to send most of their highest-paid players on offense out the door with him. Gone are quarterback After trading away Smith and Metcalf, the Seahawks have five top-100 picks with which to work: Nos. 18, 50, 52, 82 and 92. By Chase Stuart's draft chart, they have the eighth-most draft capital of any team, giving them all kinds of flexibility. They're the only one of the top 13 teams by draft capital to post a winning record last season, so they're closer to being competitive than most of the teams that have significant capital heading into April.Schneider also has a clear mandate, at least from Seahawks fans: Fix the offensive line. The only player up front who should be guaranteed a starting role in 2025 is left tackle. Seattle could add a veteran or two between now and the draft, but on paper, this is comfortably the worst offensive line in football. Since 2011, Schneider has been about twice as likely to trade down as trade up, with the Seahawks moving down in the draft 17 times and up on nine occasions. Some of those trades up have been significant successes, as they moved up for Lockett in 2015 and Metcalf in 2019. My instinct is Schneider prefers to amass picks and take as many shots as the board as possible, but if there's an offensive lineman or two he loves in the first three rounds, he might need to consolidate picks and get guys who can immediately step into the lineup.on a rookie deal, teams in this situation typically get aggressive and move up the board, since they can use free agency to supplement their roster and aren't as reliant on adding cost-controlled starters around their signal-caller. And frankly, after nailing their QB selection and getting plaudits for turning their franchises around, general managers often get a little cocky about their ability to nail critical draft picks.are no longer in the organization, so they aren't even taking up supplemental roles on the bottom of the roster., the Commanders don't have picks in Rounds 3 and 4 of this draft. They're also down second- and fourth-round picks in 2026 as part of the deal for Tunsil. Per Stuart's chart, they rank 31st in draft capital in 2025 and last in 2026.showed how a team built around veterans and free agent additions can stagnate, even with a young star at quarterback. Picks at the bottom of Round 1 often draw trade calls from teams selecting at the top of Round 2 that want to move up. Peters would be wise to seriously consider those offers.In his first couple of drafts, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah leaned into trading down and adding extra draft picks. In 2024, though, he went in the opposite direction. He traded up before the draft even took place, sending a pair of second-round picks to the Texans toIn all, by the Stuart chart, Adofo-Mensah traded away 10 picks and 73 points worth of draft capital. In return, he landed the 10th and 17th picks and sixth- and seventh-round selections. Those picks are worth 37.4 points. In other words, the Vikings paid nearly $2 for every $1 of draft capital they used. The difference between the two sides is more than the value of the No. 1 overall pick in a typical draft., and while the Vikings couldn't have known their quarterback of the future would get injured, they're already down one year of the value provided by his rookie deal. Moving up one spot for him made sense, but the more curious move was to compound the pre-draft trade up by making a second deal to jump into the teens for Turner. The pass rusher had a quiet first season, with three sacks and five knockdowns on 300 snaps.Louis Riddick and Harry Douglas explain why Minnesota is making the right choice by not considering Aaron Rodgers. It's still too early to draw significant conclusions from those trades, and one of the reasons Turner wasn't able to crack the starting lineup was the success of Adofo-Mensah's free agent signings, withhaving great seasons for the 14-3 Vikings. It would be wrong to call their 2024 anything but a success, even if they didn't get much from their first-round picks. At the same time, Minnesota had the league's oldest team by snap-weighted age. And after trading multiple picks in deals for Turner and running back, it doesn't have second-, fourth- or seventh-round selections in this draft. The Vikings have a league-low four picks and the least draft capital of any team by Stuart's model. Naturally, they will expect more out of McCarthy and Turner in their second seasons, but this team needs to add more young talent to its roster., but there's a lot of work to be done. They went 4-13 a year ago, and while there are factors -- like their dismal fumble recovery rate and turnover margin -- suggesting they are likely to improve on their record in 2025, it's tough to see that regression toward the mean pushing them all the way into playoff contention in the brutal AFC West. The same problem plaguing the Raiders for years is still their biggest weakness: a lack of young, homegrown talent as a product of dismal drafts and decision-making during the Jon Gruden and Josh McDaniels regimes. Including the picksin 2022, they had 14 first- and second-round picks between 2018 and 2023. One of those picks is going to start for the 2025 Raiders, and it's the first one: left tackle, haven't been able to sustain regular roles in the lineup. The Tom Telesco-authored 2024 draft delivered a genuine star in first-round tight endas part of the Adams trade last season, leaving them with a full complement of their original picks and two additional sixth-rounders as compensatory selections. Unless they are in love withand are in position to take him at No. 6, moving down and attempting to build through young players is the way to go. Carroll's early days in Seattle -- where the Seahawks benefited from having extra picks in each of his first three drafts -- are an example of how Las Vegas should be approaching its long-term vision with smart short-term decisions.in successive offseasons. Outside of his forays into free agency, general manager Brian Gutekunst has rebuilt the Green Bay roster by leaning heavily into the draft. His team has as many as eight potential starters from its 2022 draft class alone. It has been the league's youngest team on a snap-weighted age basis in each of the past two seasons. This is a deep, talented team.did it in 2020. The highest-profile seasons have generally come from their imports. Jacobs racked up 1,671 yards from scrimmage last season. SafetyI'm not sure teams inherently need high-profile players or that there's anything wrong with the idea of building a roster around depth as opposed to selling out for top-end talent, but the best teams have a balance. The Chiefs have had a deep roster over the past few years, but they've had cornerstones to rely upon in key situations in quarterback, players opposing teams were terrified of stopping with the game on the line. Those guys typically either made the game-winning play or created enough gravity with their presence to produce an opportunity for somebody else. The Eagles were full of those guys on both sides of the ball last season. If the Packers think there's somebody like that in this draft, especially at wide receiver or edge rusher, they should give serious thought to taking a bigger swing by sacrificing some draft capital. Gutekunst has traded up in the past for cornerbackbetween now and draft day. Consolidating those might give them their best chance of landing a player who could take them to the next level.
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