Geopolitical events have affected shipping this year, and in 2026, there are several developments worth watching.
Uncertainty has dominated shipping over the past decade, from the 2016 Hanjin bankruptcy to Covid. This year was no exception. Will 2026 prove calmer for shipping? As the head of an international freight forwarding company for 25 years, I am in a unique position to foresee developments in shipping and offer trends I believe will dominate next year.
Geopolitical events have affected shipping this year, and in 2026, there are several developments worth watching. The “Red Sea crisis” of ships attacked in the Red Sea by Yemen-based Houthi rebels has been ongoing since the 10/7 Hamas attacks on Israel. The attacksthroughout 2025. Ships have re-routed around Africa, rather than through the Red Sea. With a ceasefire, shipping will again become quicker. Pay attention to tensions between the U.S. and Iran, as any military conflict between the countries could shut the Strait of Hormuz, used to deliver oil and roil shipping. Tensions with Russia are also a threat. The war in Ukraine has affected commodities such as grain and oil. There wastoward a deal to protect Black Sea ships, but only an end to the war will bring safety to ships in the Black Sea.U.S. tariffs imposed on foreign nations have dominated shipping. As the Trump administration imposed tariffs on allies and foes, shippingfor many. A big question for 2026 is whether these tariffs will continue or end if trade deals are reached with countries. Theit would impose a new penalty for Chinese-made ships arriving at U.S. ports, starting in October 2025. The policy assesses fees against Chinese-made vessels calling U.S. ports—another cost that will be passed to shippers in 2026. The U.S. is trying to reduce China’s shipbuilding dominance.. Small to mid-size importers and businesses will likely be most affected, meaning many small to mid-size companies would go under or be acquired if tariffs remain. If the U.S. economy experiences a recession in 2026, Trump could pare back tariffs to stimulate the economy.AI advancement is the major story of 2025. Companies have joined the race for artificial general intelligence and developed tools that have been rolled out by companies, including. There are questions about whether AI is ready to replace humans. In 2026, AI will see further advancements and be further applied to shipping, whether for customs enforcement or document compliance.Over the past decade, shipping companies have consolidated into “alliances” to pool resources, build resilience and increase profitability. In 2025, a major change occurred as Maersk and MSC’s 2M Alliancein a new Gemini Cooperation alliance. Other alliances such as the Ocean Alliance between CMA CGM, Cosco, OOCL and Evergreen remain. In 2026—a decade since the Hanjin bankruptcy—shippers will likely re-evaluate whether the alliances work. Transformations in alliances would impact rates, schedule reliability and deliverability.and others, risking the proposed October 2025 adoption date. In 2026, pressure will likely remain on the largest economies to reach a shipping emissions deal. Chinaas a key party in the fight against climate change, and China’s shipping industry will likely be part of any solution.In 2026, more autonomous ships are likely to enter service. With advances in AI, these ships are likely to be safer, more efficient and smarter. The U.S. Navy is evencommissioning autonomous vessels for maritime transport. Whether the shipping industry will embrace autonomous technology or push back due to worker concerns is unknown.. Carriers cancelled routes, which resulted in higher prices. Based on my industry knowledge, the opposite is happening. Inventory levels for businesses are depleted. Businesses will need to replenish inventory, which would increase costs on businesses already facing higher, across-the-board costs. Companies’ sales will likely decrease if higher costs from tariffs and other issues prevent them from sending inventory. These higher costs should initially arise during the fourth quarter of 2025, with the full effects visible by the first quarter. That could force the U.S. government to re-evaluate its tariff position. The Federal Reserve may also intervene, but it remains to be seen whether interest rates will be changed due to inflationary pressures.I see the uncertainty in shipping personally. Customers have faced more expensive shipping costs, more regulatory hurdles and uncertainty throughout 2025. I see a lot of potential for 2026. Breakthroughs in technology and emissions standards, as well as positive developments in geopolitical events, offer hope for a calmer shipping and logistics industry after a volatile decade. Let’s hope for calmer seas in 2026.
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