Weather organizations from around the world agree that the planet's average global surface temperature in 2024 could well have passed a crucial threshold meant to limit the worst effects of climate change.
Amid a week of horrifying wildfires in Los Angeles, government agencies in the U.S. and around the world confirmed Friday that 2024 was the planet's hottest year since recordkeeping began in 1880. It’s the 11th consecutive year in which a new heat record has been set, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said.
’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “We aren’t saying any of these things were caused by changes in Earth’s climate,” Vose said. But since warmer air holds more moisture, the higher temperatures “could have exacerbated some events this year.” Last year’s data also notes a step toward a major climate threshold. Keeping the average global surface temperature from rising 1.
pegged 2024’s global average surface temperature at 1.46 degrees C above its preindustrial baseline, and NASA’s measurements put the increase at 1.47 degrees C. In 2023, NASA said the temperature was 1.36 degrees C higher than the baseline. Considering the margin of error in their measurements, “that puts the
and NASA models comfortably within the possibility that the real number is 1.5 degrees,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Calculations from other organizations passed the 1.5-degree mark more clearly. Berkeley Earth and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service both said the planet warmed to slightly more than 1.6 degrees C above pre-industrial times in 2024. The United Nations' World Meteorological Organization said the increase was 1.
predicted there was only a 1 in 3 chance that 2024 would break the record set in 2023, Vose said. Then every month from January to July set a new high, and August was a tie. As a result, Friday’s declaration came as little surprise. The longer-term trends are no better. “We anticipate future global warming as long as we are emitting greenhouse gases,” Schmidt said. “That’s something that brings us no joy to tell people, but unfortunately that’s the case.
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