Economists say forecasts for next year are especially tricky to make, given a number of unknowns in the broader U.S. and global economy that would influence the national housing market.
Redfin Corp. this week predicted home prices will fall for the first time since 2011 — but at a modest 4% nationally. Zillow Group Inc. is anticipating home prices to remain flat nationally next year, while Realtor.com has among the more positive predictions, with home prices appreciating 5.4% across the U.S. in 2023.
But economists say forecasts are especially tricky to make this year, given a number of unknowns in the broader U.S. and global economy that would influence the national housing market. Those include inflation, what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates, the labor market and geopolitical issues. Individual markets will also see different outcomes., deputy chief economist economist at Redfin.
The rapid escalation of mortgage prices this spring and summer is what finally brought the temperature down on what had been a hot fire of a housing market, Marr said. The impact of higher mortgage rates in a compressed time period was like throwing a bucket of cold water on that fire, he continued., chief economist at Realtor.com, said she's expecting mortgage rates to stabilize next year. The residential real estate company is forecasting mortgage rates will average 7.
Marr said, during the first year of recessions, it's typical for people to remain in place, in part because job growth is slower and most moves historically are prompted by a job opportunity.
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