NBA Finals odds, pick: Nuggets vs. Heat series predictions, best bets
Heat vs. Nuggets Game 1Per Raheem Palmer of The Ringer, teams that win a Game 7 are 36-50 in the following series since 1988.The odds are already stacked against the Heat, given that seven-game playoff series are so punishing. But the situation Miami finds itself in is worse than usual.
Now, the Heat have to turn around and play consecutive games at Denver’s mile high altitude against a well-rested offensive juggernaut. The Nuggets, who last played on May 22, are undefeated at home during this playoff run, partially because it’s hard to defend their style of basketball at elevation. The Heat are short on big men, and Bam Adebayo has always struggled against Nikola Jokic .The best way to stop Jokic is to throw multiple bodies at him, but the Heat only have one, largely ineffective Jokic “stopper.
That monster advantage is gone, as the Nuggets lead all 2023 playoff teams in turnovers per game and assist-to-turnover ratio . Denver should easily circumvent Miami’s ball pressure and crafty zone defense with Jokic-centered ball movement. There’s a reason Denver is 9-1 straight up and against the spread in its past 10 meetings with Miami: The Heat don’t match up well with the Nuggets. The Heat and Erik Spoelstra used a monster coaching advantage to overcome a huge talent disparity in the East finals, but that coaching advantage has been severely slashed.
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