2019 ELECTIONS: ANALYSIS: How the parties shape up come 8 May, province by province By Marianne Merten marianne_merten
ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa has pushed a frenetic electioneering schedule as the face of the governing party’s renewal for better governance and economic growth. Many, including previously disenchanted ANC supporters critical of the scandal-ridden Jacob Zuma presidency, argue that giving Ramaphosa a “convincing mandate” through the ballot would allow him to continue cleaning up – both government and party. And it would avoid Ramaphosa being removed post 8 May as part of the pushback.
All the ANC needs to govern is 51%. That’s a majority and that will do very nicely, thank you very much, even if political egos would be left bruised. The argument on the other side of the body politic has the DA maintaining the 8 May vote must be used to strengthen the opposition, by which it means itself, as a counterbalance to the ANC’s behemoth. And a vote for a smaller party would amount to splitting the opposition and thus giving the ANC power in turn.
it is this – with a few upsets, and increased support for the FF+ and ACDP, incumbents retained their seats, although the ANC with a reduced majority while the DA gained support. Much will depend on turn-out on the day, particularly for the ANC that must get its disenchanted voters, and not only from the black middle class, to return to the party fold – and cast their ballots. If the governing party does that, it may yet clinch the province solo. Given the fluidity of voting sentiment, in Gauteng election day will not be done until it’s done.
Notable, however, is the near doubling of support for the ACDP up to 7% in recent months and the FF+ coming in at 1,8% support, or effectively three times the 0,6% it achieved in 2014 elections. These poll numbers, also backed by recent by-election trends, indicate disgruntled voters are looking at options.
Since the 2014 elections the ANC holds 52 seats in the provincial legislature on the back of 64,52% support, against the DA with 10 seats , followed by the IFP’s nine seats and the six seats held by the National Freedom Party given its 7,31% poll five years ago. The EFF holds two seats because of the 1,85% it obtained, and the Minority Front, one.
Across the province, there is some political fluidity: the NFP appears to have been haemorrhaging to both the ANC and IFP, which has seen an upsurge of support while the DA is understood to be confident about boosting its support. This comes in the wake of ANC factional twists and turns — and the lingering impact of the Marikana massacre, when police on 16 August 2012 killed 34 Lonmin miners.
Mokgoro’s a caretaker and Mahumapelo, who is at number 58 on the national ANC list, is headed to Parliament. At the top of the provincial election list is Kabelo Mataboge, an ex-ANC provincial secretary on the comeback trail after serving a three-year suspension for not having informed party bosses of a legal challenge ahead of the 2012 Mangaung conference. The ANC twists and turns are set to continue.
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