A seismic shift in opinion is occurring among the electorate with just months until Election Day.
While issues fluctuate in prominence from election cycle to cycle, pollsters are observing a sustained hardening of views among voters on two prominent 2024 election topics: illegal
It is estimated that 3.2 million people, about the population of Arkansas, illegally crossed the U.S. border in 2023. Just five years prior, under President Donald Trump, that number was approximately 1.1 million. At the time, nearly 6 in 10 peoplethe idea of deporting illegal immigrants, as did many Republicans in competitive races for fear of being labeled as political extremists.
Today is a completely different story, and it shows why the Biden administration’s govern-by-crisis approach has pushed voters closer to Trump. A plurality of battleground voters nowdeporting illegal entrants, and another 1 in 5 favor completely freezing immigration until the border crisis is resolved. That’s 70% who want to halt immigration and/or deport those who enter illegally. Even 52% of independent voters and 47% of suburban voters support mass deportations.
More troubling is the existential tipping point. Voters not only question the criminal justice system’s core function, but a majority also believe the system encourages property crime, while only 28% say it deters property crime. These numbers are nearly identical for violent crime.
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