Here are two predictions about the Chinese spy balloon now floating across the continental U.S.
First, we'll learn that President Joe Biden was offered a shoot-down option with very low risk to Montanans. Second, Beijing will come to deeply regret this incident. Whatever political challenges the balloon poses for Biden, Xi Jinping has made a big mistake.
In exchange for what is likely to be very limited new intelligence data, Xi has crystallized China's threat to the U.S. in a directly physical and unequivocally aggressive form. All of Xi's recent work trying to shift away from China's self-destructive"wolf warrior" diplomacy/violent antics has floated off into the ether. Yes, there is a litany of far more serious Chinese threats to U.S. national security than this balloon. These include Beijing's vast intellectual property theft, responsible for thieving hundreds of billions of dollars from the U.S. each year. They include China's highly capable anti-ship ballistic missiles, designed to force American aircraft carriers far away from Chinese shores. They include China's overseas police stations, used to harass innocent people living abroad. They include the seduction of American corporations, entertainment and sports entities, and powerful investors into the Communist Party's service. But this balloon encapsulates China's threat in a way that none of those other threats has yet achieved. Indeed, were one tasked with inventing a way to scare or anger Americans in a memorable fashion, this balloon flight would fit the bill perfectly.It's unclear what Beijing was thinking here. Its excuse that this is a meteorological experiment gone wrong is ludicrous on its face. Indeed, it only worsens the public relations nightmare Beijing has unleashed. True, China may have gained high-fidelity images or signals intelligence on U.S. nuclear ICBM bases in Montana. But even then, that information is unlikely to be significantly more valuable than anything a Chinese spy satellite could collect. The only credible objective of this flight, then, would seem to be Xi Jinping's desire to increase pressure on the Biden administration.Americans of all walks of life are now fixated on an adversary's spy apparatus looming above their homes and communities. They, and their representatives in Congress, may remember this balloon the next time a Chinese official calls on the U.S. to serve Beijing's"win-win cooperation" agenda. They may remember this balloon the next time China screams that accusations of its espionage, genocide, and territorial imperialism are unfair. Republicans in Congress certainly have new impetus and political cover for their more hawkish China strategy. Will Biden be politically able to resist congressional demands for a tougher policy toward Beijing? For corporate America, also, the balloon is an unwelcome political bomb. Will the NBA be able to continue casually inviting a Chinese ambassador to make free throws after this? Will BlackRock and others such as Coca-Cola, Hewlett Packard, Pepsi, Intel, and Mars find it so easy to play ball with China? Put simply, Xi has just given himself a balloon shot to the head. The only way China could have made this situation worse for itself is if its balloon had been painted red and then crashed into a school.
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