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Middle Eastern leaders will welcome President Bashar al-Assad at a regional summit on Friday, representing a triumph for the once-shunned Syrian leader, while officials in Washington insist that U.S. sanctions on Syria will remain.
— another step in the country’s regional reintegration following a prolonged exile over its brutal handling of political uprising — also highlights the stark gap between the United States and some of its closest Middle Eastern partners on an issue that once united them.
The Biden administration, like European allies, has vowed to maintain its policy of isolation and pressure against Assad, whose campaign to crush dissent that began amid the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 has resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands of people and displacement of half his country’s population.U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive diplomatic discussions, said they have consulted with Middle Eastern leaders about their steps to embrace deeper ties with Syria. They say the Biden administration supports those countries’ overall goals in Syria, including the hope of diminishing the influence of shared adversary Iran.“There has been disagreement on the tactics and sequencing,” one senior official said. “But there is generally alignment on ultimate objectives,” including the understanding that Washington intends to keep tightly in place sanctions that prohibit companies and countries from doing business with Damascus. Despite early hopes that the rebellion would make way for a more open, democratic Syria, Assad has outlasted scores of his opponents and clawed back territory with the help of economic and military aid from Moscow and Tehran. He now boasts nominal control over nearly two-thirds of the country, according to U.S. estimates, with the remnants of the Islamic State severely diminished. The rapprochement reflects a recognition in Middle Eastern capitals that, despite earlier efforts to cultivate a formidable opposition to Assad, the U.S.-led policy of replacing the Syrian leader failed, having set the stage for the rise of the Islamic State and the expansion of Iranian military power on NATO’s borders.But analysts say the disconnect over Syria between Washington and key partners — including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates — also highlights the shifting dynamics in U.S.-Middle Eastern ties, as Arab leaders accuse the United States of neglecting the region in favor of a focus on competition with China and Russia. Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that while the notion of America’s abandonment of the Middle East was overblown — the Pentagon maintains major bases in Bahrain and Qatar, among other places — the growing U.S. focus on “great power competition,” in addition to political upheaval in Washington and increased autonomy in fossil fuels, had the effect of prompting many regional nations to hedge their bets. “The signals that we have sent in any number of ways compel smaller powers who were dependent on us, who looked to us for support and leverage, to readjust,” he said.
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